Timeline

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Covid 19 Event Risk Assessment Planner
UNITED KINGDOM

Friday 18th June 2021

This part of the website shows the timeline history of the change in %chance during the pandemic since the start of mass testing. It shows the change in estimated chance that one or more individuals are COVID-19 positive at an event (diagonal lines) given the event size / number of attendees (horizontal x-axis) and the case prevalence within the population(vertical y-axis)

This part of the website shows the timeline history of the change in %chance during the pandemic since the start of mass testing. It shows the estimated chance that one or more individuals are COVID-19 positive at an event (vertical y-axis) given the event size / number of attendees (horizontal x-axis) and the case prevalence at the time (curved lines)

Data date range: 4th June 2021 to 18th June 2021
Population: 66,796,807Alt view of data

U.K. England Scotland N.I. Wales

Date: 12-Feb-21
15-May-2012-Feb-21
Regions (England):Authorities / Districts (UK):
    The following 10 authorities currently have the highest rate of infections in the UK:   Blackburn with Darwen, Hyndburn, Ribble Valley, Burnley, Rossendale, Manchester, Salford, Dundee City, Pendle, Preston.

    As mentioned above this section of the website lets you view the evolution of %chance of an infected person attending an event over time since May 2020 using the slider below the graph area. May 2020 has been chosen because prior to this date the UK goverment had chosen not to have a campaign of widescale testing so the number of cases in the community was probably widely clear of the number indicated by the number of cases reported in the official government data. The slider steps through the data 1 week at a time because that level of granularity should be sufficient over the period of the pandemic. Friday has been chosen as the day of week of interest because the data provided by the devolved governments, apart from being constantly added to, is also updated and corrected as the information passes up the data chain to the team posting it on the various websites and can take a couple of weeks to stabilise. At weekends data is always a bit more erratic and unreliable as it seems to take longer to flow up the data chain and as a result is subject to more corrections over time before it stabilises. Obviously this delay and updating only really impacts the more recent data – that provided for dates in the last 2 weeks or so – but it is better to have as accurate a picture of the evolution of %chance as possible.
    As you will scroll through the timeline you can clearly see the impact of lockdown 1.0 during the spring and early summer of 2020 on the %chance of an infected person attending an event during the summer period followed by the sharp rise in cases in October/November as the English Government tried, unsuccessfully, to implement its zoning system for restricting peoples’ movements. It also shows the peak in %chance in the 2nd wave of infections early in 2021 just after Christmas 2020.